The Climate Governance Commission has proposed a Big Four, Grand Bargain, to be agreed by the four largest emitters of Greenhouse Gases – the US, European Union, China, and India, which collectively account for more than 50% of global carbon emissions. Their governments exert tremendous influence on norms and standards for global climate governance.
The proposal is inspired by similar Big-Four-cooperation undertaken by China, Soviet the UK and US, who worked together following World War II to establish the War Crimes Tribunals, United Nations, International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
The Big Four, Grand Bargain could involve the four governments setting coordinated GHG reduction targets and fossil fuel phase out goals with concrete timelines and implementation plans, among other key measures.
We have seen the beginnings of such leadership with the G7’s launch of the “Climate Club” for cooperation on decarbonization. A Big Four Grand Bargain would go a step further by recognizing the need for the Big Four to take the lead on ending the use of fossil fuels, even though this may prove, in the short-term, economically and politically challenging for the players involved.
The Big Four, joined by collaborating nations, could reiterate their commitment to a just transition, acknowledging the disproportionate burden placed on low and middle-income countries. This “grand bargain” could be as detailed or as abstract as is necessary to reach consensus. The focus is to ensure the Big Four’s commitment to the same climate objectives and the new policies and institutions necessary to reach them at a planetary level.
The proposal does not downplay the political and economic differences between major powers. Rather, such a grand bargain would signal to the world that the Big Four are willing to set these differences aside to protect humanity from the potentially catastrophic effects of the climate crisis and the planetary emergency. The grand bargain approach offers a path to transcend the usual geopolitical and economic rivalries.